Tropical Storm Earl (Potential Scenario) (Money Hurricane)
Tropical Storm Earl was a very small moderate tropical storm in late July to early August of 2016. Earl had no major impacts, and spent most of it lifetime in the open Atlantic Ocean. Earl was also the first tropical cyclone to develop in the MDR (Main Development Region) of the Atlantic since Tropical Storm Ida of 2015. Meteorological History For several days prior to Earl's formation, the GFS remained consistent that a weak to moderate tropical cyclone would develop torwards the end of the month. Due to significant dry air in the vicinity caused by the SAL (Saharan Air Layer), major intensification was not expected by the GFS, whilst other models did not develop a tropical cyclone at all. On July 20, it was noted that a tropical wave had developed over Sudan, and began moving westward at a slow pace. On July 24, the NHC (National Hurricane Center) acknowledged the wave and issued a low (30%) chance of formation in the next five days. Two days later, on July 26, satellite imagery suggested that the wave had become well organized and was likely to develop. Due to that, the NHC raised the chance of development to a medium (60%) chance. Overnight, however, the wave suddenly became ragged and very small, signaling that dry air had entrained itself into the center of circulation. The dry air was expected to subside, and the NHC once again raised the chance to high (80%) that this now very small tropical wave would develop into a tropical cyclone. Models have begun to also forecast that this system would develop into a moderate tropical storm, while two models, the CMC and NAVGEM, suggested minimal hurricane status. The next morning, the wave exited off the African coast and began to rapidly organize. Just three hours after exiting the African coast, the NHC announced that the very small tropical wave had become a tropical depression, receiving the recognition Tropical Depression Five and that advisories have been initiated. 250 miles from the African coast, Five was announced by the NHC to have become a minimal tropical storm with winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1007 mbars by satellite estimate. Five received the name Earl as it began curving to the northwest torwards Cape Verde. Some models began to indicate that Tropical Storm Earl could become a hurricane as it slowly moved to the northwest at 3 mph. Earl was one of the smallest tropical cyclones ever recorded, only slightly larger than Tropical Storm Marco of 2008, which holds the record for the smallest tropical cyclone ever recorded. As a precaution for the rapidly intensifying Earl, Tropical Storm Watches were placed for four of the ten Cape Verdian islands: Santiago Island, Fogo Island, Brava Island, and Maio Island. Intensification slowed slightly, however, at mid-day on July 28, the NHC reported that Earl has strengthened slightly to a 45 mph tropical storm with a pressure of 1006 mbars. Models predicted Earl to pass very close by Maio Island and Fago Island is the next 24 hours, and Tropical Storm Warnings were issued for the two islands. Earl continued to modestly intensify and in the early morning hours of July 29, was believed to have winds of 50 mph and a pressure of 1004 mbars. However, later in the day, Earl ran into a small pocket of dry air, and weakened back to 45 mph and a pressure of 1006 mbars. As Earl neared Cape Verde, conditions became favorable again for intensification. Strong rip currents from the really small storm caught some beachgoers off guard, and several rescues had to be made, resulting in no fatalities. As the storm was deemed too small to have any major impacts except rough surf, the Tropical Storm Watches were dropped for Maio Island and Santiago Island. The Tropical Storm Warning for Fogo Island was canceled and was replaced by a Tropical Storm Watch. However, a Tropical Storm Warning remained in effect for Brava Island. At noon on Friday, July 29, while passing by Cape Verde, Earl intensified slightly to 50 mph and 1002 mbars. Some outer rainbands impacted the outer islands, with locally heavy downpours and sporadic lighting. A wind gust of 48 mph was recorded on Maio Island. Effects began to die down as Earl began to accelerate away from the island chain. While moving away from the islands, Earl once again fluctuated in intensity as the storm ran into an emergent area of dry air which had come off the SAL. As expected, Earl weakened to 1003 mbars, however the winds remained at 50 mph. Overnight, Earl continued to steadily weaken, with the pressure slightly rising to 1004 mbars, but the winds remained steady at 50 mph. However, later that same day, July 30, Earl crossed into very favorable conditions, and in a period of 6 hours the pressure dropped by 4 mbar to 1000 mbars. Wind speeds quickly rose to 65 mph, which would ultimately be the peak windspeed of Earl. Earl continued to fluctuate in intensity before peaking late on July 30 with a pressure of 999 mbars. Continuing to move west, Earl fluctuated in intensity for the whole day on July 31, before a quick weakening trend began in the early hours of August 1. Dry air from the SAL began to degrade Earl and rapid dissipation was expected. By 6 am of August 1, Earl had weakened to 45 mph and 1006 mbars. By midday, Earl had weakened to a tropical depression. At 21:00 UTC on August 1, the NHC announced that Tropical Depression Earl had become a remnant low. The remnants of Earl continued to move westward before finally completely dissipating on August 4 north of the Lesser Antilles. Impacts Earl caused only minor impacts on Cape Verde and no damage or fatalities were reported. Due to this, Earl was not retired and the name was reused again in the 2022 Atlantic hurricane season. Records Tropical Storm Earl was one of the smallest tropical cyclones ever recorded, only slightly larger than Tropical Storm Marco, with tropical storm force winds extending 15 miles from the center. Category:Weak Storms Category:Future storms Category:Tropical storm Category:Cyclones Category:Money Hurricane Category:Potential Scenario Series/Atlantic Category:2016 Atlantic hurricane season